Working Paper 05-17 - Une approche macrobudgétaire stylisée pour simuler des trajectoires de finances publiques - Quelques enseignements pour la conduite de la politique budgétaire dans un référent exprimé en termes structurels[Working Paper 05-17 - Een gestileerde macrobudgettaire benadering om trajecten voor de overheidsfinanciën te simuleren - Enkele lessen voor het voeren van het begrotingsbeleid in een referentiekader uitgedrukt in structurele termen]

This study presents a compact model that allows a stylised, yet dynamic reasoning on the main macrofiscal aggregates that are relevant for setting budgetary paths compatible with the structural budget balance requirements of the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. Some lessons on the conduct of fiscal policy in a reference framework in structural terms can be learned from the simulations provided for illustrative purposes. These simulations show in particular that – under certain conditions relating to the degree to which the budgetary adjustments have a permanent effect on the economic activity and thus on potential GDP – when the feedback effects of adjustments on the underlying macroeconomic environment are left out of consideration, this can be detrimental to the credibility of the considered structural paths.