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Risk, Uncertainty and Financial Stability

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  • Charles Goodhart

Abstract

My first-ever essay into quasi-independent research involved an attempt to understand, explain and even possibly extend G.L.S. Shackle’s model of decision-making under uncertainty. Undergraduates at Cambridge who had done well in Part 1 of the Economics Tripos were encouraged to participate in a joint student/Faculty seminar, called – as I recall – the Monday Club, and each Monday evening of term one of the undergraduates, chosen by drawing lots, was expected to present a paper. Anyhow when I drew my turn, I constructed a three dimensional graph, out of green plasticine, of Shackle’s focus gain and focus loss, potential surprise, and all that. I recollect that the marks for technical merit were higher than those for artistic ability. The approximate date of that presentation was November 1958.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Goodhart, 2008. "Risk, Uncertainty and Financial Stability," FMG Special Papers sp178, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp178
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