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The Cost of Conservatism: Extreme Returns, Value-at Risk, and the Basle Multiplicaiton Factor

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  • Philipp Hartmann
  • Jon Danielsson

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Abstract

We argue that most current methodologies for value-at-risk (VaR) underestimate the VaR, and are therefore ill-suited for market risk capital. Better VaR methods are available, such as the tail-fitting method proposed here. However, financial institutions may be relctant to use those mehtods since current market risk regulations may, perversely, provide incentives for banks to underestimate the VaR.

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File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/documents/specialPapers/1990s/sp100.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Special Papers with number sp100.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp100

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Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

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Cited by:
  1. Wagner P. Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton, 2008. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regressions," Working Papers Series 161, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Giacomo Bormetti & Maria Elena De Giuli & Danilo Delpini & Claudia Tarantola, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of Value-at-Risk with Product Partition Models," Papers 0809.0241, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
  3. Jon Danielsson & Casper G. de Vries & Bjorn N. Jorgensen, 1998. "The value of value at risk: statistical, financial, and regulatory considerations (summary)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 107-108.
  4. Gimeno, Ricardo & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "An automatic procedure for the estimation of the tail index," MPRA Paper 37023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 25494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Rossignolo, Adrian F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2012. "Value-at-Risk models and Basel capital charges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 303-319.
  7. Flavio Bazzana, 2001. "I modelli interni per la valutazione del rischio di mercato secondo l'approccio del Value at Risk," Alea Tech Reports 011, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  8. Rossignolo, Adrián F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2013. "Market crises and Basel capital requirements: Could Basel III have been different? Evidence from Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1323-1339.
  9. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  10. Weron, Rafał, 2004. "Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations," Papers 2004,32, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).

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