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Consistent economic indexes for the 50 states

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  • Theodore M. Crone

Abstract

In the late 1980s James Stock and Mark Watson developed an alternative coincident index for the U.S. economy. They used the Kalman filter to estimate a latent dynamic factor for the national economy and designated the common factor as the coincident index. This paper uses the Stock/Watson methodology to estimate a consistent set of coincident indexes for the 50 states. The indexes are consistent in the following sense. (1) The input variables for estimating the common factor are the same for each state. (2) The timing of the coincident indexes is set to coincide with the same observable variable in each state (nonfarm employment). (3) And the trend of the index for each state is set to the trend of real gross state product in the state. The final indexes are available on the web at http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/stateindexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore M. Crone, 2002. "Consistent economic indexes for the 50 states," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:02-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly & John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Does regional economic performance affect bank health? New analysis of an old question," Working Paper Series 2004-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Erick Elder & Gary A. Wagner, 2007. "How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 75-87.
    3. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Robert DeYoung & Anne Gron & Andrew Winton, 2005. "Risk overhang and loan portfolio decisions," Working Paper Series WP-05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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    Keywords

    Indexation (Economics);

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