Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Momentum and the term structure of interest rates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Durham, J. Benson

    ()
    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    A vast literature reports excess returns to momentum strategies across many financial asset classes. However, no study examines trading rules based on price history along individual government-bond term structures—that is, with respect to duration buckets across the curve—as opposed to across sovereign markets or individual term structures as a whole over time. Under duration-neutral and long-only constraints as well as low trading costs, this paper reports excess annualized returns of up to 120 basis points and information ratios as high as 0.79 using U.S. Treasury total return data from December 1996 through July 2013. Given a corresponding long-short strategy with no absolute duration risk, excess returns and information ratios are up to 207 basis points and 1.01, respectively. Unlike momentum strategies in some other asset classes, the excess return distributions are positively skewed, and momentum loads, if in any way, favorably on broad risk factors. Returns correlate to a degree with portfolios based on instantaneous forward term premium estimates, in turn derived from a set of Gaussian arbitrage-free affine term structure models. However, substantial variance remains unexplained, the betas are less than one, and the alphas are meaningfully positive. A caveat is that underlying behavioral explanations for momentum are lacking in the context of the U.S. Treasury market.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr657.html
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 657.

    as in new window
    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:657

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:
    Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/

    Related research

    Keywords: momentum anomaly; interest rates;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.