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Can China Catch Up with Greece?

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Abstract

China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even given generous assumptions concerning future growth fundamentals, China appears likely to close only a fraction of the gap with high-income countries in the years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunter L. Clark & Matthew Higgins, 2023. "Can China Catch Up with Greece?," Liberty Street Economics 20231019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:97185
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/10/can-china-catch-up-with-greece/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; demographics; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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