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Assessing the Outlook for Employment across Industries

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Abstract

Job gains exceeded output growth in 2022, bringing GDP per worker back down to its trend level after being well above for an extended period. Employment is consequently set to grow slower than output going forward, as it typically does. Breaking down the GDP per worker by industry, though, shows a significant divergence between the services and goods-producing sectors. Productivity in the services sector was modestly above its pre-pandemic path at the end of last year, suggesting room for relatively strong employment growth, with the gap particularly large in the health care, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality sectors. Productivity in goods-producing industries, though, was depressed, implying that payroll growth is set to lag that sector’s GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Klitgaard & Ethan Nourbash, 2023. "Assessing the Outlook for Employment across Industries," Liberty Street Economics 20230510, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:96140
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/05/assessing-the-outlook-for-employment-across-industries/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Payroll; employment; Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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