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Inflation Persistence: Dissecting the News in January PCE Data

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Abstract

This post presents updated estimates of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for January 2023. The estimates are obtained by the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT), a model we introduced on Liberty Street Economics last year and covered most recently here and here. The MCT is a dynamic factor model estimated on monthly data for the seventeen major sectors of the PCE price index. It decomposes each sector’s inflation as the sum of a common trend, a sector-specific trend, a common transitory shock, and a sector-specific transitory shock. The trend in PCE inflation is constructed as the sum of the common and the sector-specific trends weighted by the expenditure shares.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Almuzara & Argia M. Sbordone, 2023. "Inflation Persistence: Dissecting the News in January PCE Data," Liberty Street Economics 20230309, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:95841
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; data revisions; personal consumption expenditures (PCE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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