IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednls/93113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil Prices, Global Demand Expectations, and Near-Term Global Inflation

Author

Abstract

Oil prices have increased by nearly 60 percent since the summer of 2020, coinciding with an upward trend in global inflation. If higher oil prices are the result of constrained supply, then this could pose some stagflation risks to the growth outlook—a concern reflected in a June Financial Times article, “Why OPEC Matters.” In this post, we utilize the demand and supply decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report to argue that most of the oil price increase over the past year or so has reflected improving global demand expectations. We then illustrate what these changing global demand expectations might mean for near-term global inflation developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2021. "Oil Prices, Global Demand Expectations, and Near-Term Global Inflation," Liberty Street Economics 20211004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:93113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/10/oil-prices-global-demand-expectations-and-near-term-global-inflation/
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; global inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:93113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.