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Did Investor Sentiment Affect Credit Risk around the 2016 Election?

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Abstract

Immediately following the presidential election of 2016, both consumer and investor sentiments were buoyant and financial markets boomed. That these sentiments affect financial asset prices is not so surprising, given past stock market evidence and episodes such as the dot-com bubble. Perhaps more surprising, the risk of corporate default—which is driven mainly by firms’ financial health but also by bond liquidity—also fell following the election, as indicated by lower yield spreads. In this post, I show that, although expectations of better corporate and macroeconomic conditions were the primary drivers of lower credit risk, improved investor sentiment also contributed.

Suggested Citation

  • Asani Sarkar, 2017. "Did Investor Sentiment Affect Credit Risk around the 2016 Election?," Liberty Street Economics 20171129, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87229
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risks; presidential elections; Investor sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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