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Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremiah P. Boyle
  • Richard K. Crump
  • Emanuel Moench
  • Matthew Raskin
  • Carlo Rosa
  • Lisa Stowe

Abstract

Market prices provide timely information on policy expectations. But as we emphasized in our previous post, they can deviate from investors? expectations of the most likely path because they embed risk premiums and represent probability-weighted averages over different possible paths. In contrast, surveys explicitly ask respondents for their views on the likely path of economic variables. In this post, we highlight two surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that provide information about expectations that can complement market-based measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremiah P. Boyle & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench & Matthew Raskin & Carlo Rosa & Lisa Stowe, 2014. "Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate," Liberty Street Economics 20141205a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86999
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal funds rate; Survey of Market Participants; Policy expectations; Survey of Primary Dealers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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