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Forecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip

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Abstract

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been trashed, bashed, and abused during the Great Recession and after. One of the many reasons for the bashing was the models’ alleged inability to forecast the recession itself. Oddly enough, there’s little evidence on the forecasting performance of DSGE models during this turbulent period. In the paper “DSGE Model-Based Forecasting,” prepared for Elsevier’s Handbook of Economic Forecasting, two of us (Del Negro and Schorfheide), with the help of the third (Herbst), provide some of this evidence. This post shares some of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Daniel Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Forecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip," Liberty Street Economics 20120416, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86800
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; DSGE models; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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