Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term interest rates
AbstractReal output is strongly correlated with the short-term nominal rate of interest. However, standard models of aggregate demand suggest that real output should be correlated with an expected long-term real rate of interest. We argue that the observed output-nominal rate correlation is an artifact of monetary policy. The systematic behavior of monetary policy, in combination with sluggish inflation adjustment and a structural IS curve that relates output to the rationally expected long-term real rate of interest, has made the sample path of the long-term real rate look like the short-term nominal rate. Thus the statistical correlation between the nominal rate and output arises in the interaction of monetary policy with the rest of the macroeconomy; it is not a structural relationship that policy is free to exploit.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 93-05.
Date of creation: 1993
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- Bennett T. McCallum, 2005.
"Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2003.
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