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The impact of evolving labor practices and demographics on U.S. inflation and unemployment

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  • John V. Duca
  • Carl M. Campbell, III

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, NAIRU estimates have declined and unemployment duration has risen relative to the unemployment rate. These developments may have arisen from the aging of the workforce or practices reducing job turnover. We assess the internal consistency of these hypotheses using simulation methods and test their external consistency using modified NAIRU models. We find that demographics cannot fully account for changes in the NAIRU, consistent with Staiger, Stock, and Watson (2001) and in contrast to Shimer (1998, 2001). Instead, our results attribute shifts in the NAIRU and duration to a combination of shifts in demographics and job turnover.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0702.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0702

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Cited by:
  1. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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