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Estimates of State and Local Government Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation

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  • Stephan D. Whitaker

Abstract

This data brief presents estimates of the impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns on US state and local income and sales tax revenue. The author estimates that these revenues will decline by $54 billion in fiscal year 2020 (FY20). Depending on the speed of the recovery over the next fiscal year, another $25 billion to $137 billion of revenue may be lost. If states split their rainy day funds between FY20 and fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset these revenue declines, the shortfalls would be reduced to $21 billion in FY20 and $4 billion to $78 billion in FY21.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan D. Whitaker, 2020. "Estimates of State and Local Government Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation," Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 87963, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:c00003:87963
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200513
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:aei:rpaper:1008586598 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Clemens, Jeffrey & Veuger, Stan, 2021. "Politics and the distribution of federal funds: Evidence from federal legislation in response to COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Jeffrey Clemens & Benedic Ippolito & Stan Veuger, 2021. "Medicaid and fiscal federalism during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 94-109, December.

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