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Do shocks permanently change output? : Local persistency in economic time series

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  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira
  • Xiao, Zhijie

Abstract

While it is recognized that output fuctuations are highly persistent over certain range, less persistent results are also found around very long horizons (Conchrane, 1988), indicating the existence of local or temporary persistency. In this paper, we study time series with local persistency. A test for stationarity against locally persistent alternative is proposed. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistic are provided under both the null and the alternative hypothesis of local persistency. Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to study the power and size of the test. An empirical application reveals that many US real economic variables may exhibit local persistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Xiao, Zhijie, 2004. "Do shocks permanently change output? : Local persistency in economic time series," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 529, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:529
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    Cited by:

    1. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2004. "On the use (fulness) of CGE modelling in trade negotiations and policy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 564, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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