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Le prix du pétrole et de l'activité économique régionale au Canada

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Carl Gaudreault

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Abstract

This study continues the works of Gaudreault (2002) but on a regional dimension. We first build two distinct Canadian regions based on the provinces that are net producers or net importers of crude oil. Thus, variables of economic activity of the East region (Ontario through Newfoundland) and the West region (Manitoba through British Columbia) are introduced in the model in place of the Canadian economic activity as a whole. Newfoundland is treated as a net importer on the whole estimation period (1962 to 2001) though since 1999 it has been a net exporter of crude oil. The results show that, following a positive real oil price shock, the response of economic activity in the East region is significant and slightly stronger than the national average, while the economic activity in the West region rises significantly after four quarters. Eight quarters after the shock, cumulative impulse responses for the West region are not significant anymore. Furthermore, results show that Alberta is the main source for the rise in economic activity of the West region, and that Ontario is slightly more sensible to a positive oil price shock than Quebec, probably reflecting a more important commercial link with the United States. On a shorter period, excluding 1970’s oil shocks, the East region has a response relatively similar to the one obtained on the complete period, while the West region has generally a positive response slightly stronger and faster.

Dans cette étude, nous approfondissons les travaux empiriques de Gaudreault (2002) sous un angle régional. Nous construisons premièrement deux régions canadiennes distinctes sur la base des provinces canadiennes productrices nettes ou importatrices nettes de pétrole brut. Ainsi, les variables d’activité économique de la région de l’Est (Ontario jusqu’à Terre-Neuve) et de la région de l’Ouest (Manitoba jusqu’en Colombie-Britannique) sont introduites dans le modèle à la place de la variable d’activité économique du Canada. Terre-Neuve est considérée comme une province importatrice nette de pétrole sur l’ensemble de la période étudiée (1962 à 2001) bien que depuis 1999 elle soit une province productrice nette de pétrole. Les résultats montrent que, suite à un choc positif de prix réel du pétrole, la réponse négative de l’activité économique de la région de l’Est est significative et légèrement plus forte que celle la moyenne nationale, tandis que l’activité économique de la région de l’Ouest augmente significativement après quatre trimestres. Huit trimestres après le choc, les réponses dynamiques cumulatives pour la région de l’Ouest ne sont plus significatives. De plus, les résultats montrent que l’Alberta est la principale source de la hausse de l’activité économique de la région de l’Ouest, et que l’Ontario est légèrement plus sensible à un choc positif de prix réel du pétrole que le Québec, reflétant probablement son lien commercial plus important avec les États-Unis. Sur une période plus récente, excluant les chocs pétroliers des années 1970, la région de l’Est a une réaction relativement semblable à celle obtenue sur l’échantillon complet, tandis que la région de l’Ouest a en général une réaction positive légèrement plus forte et plus rapide.

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Paper provided by Department of Finance Canada in its series Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada with number 2003-15.

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