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Impact économique régional d’un changement dans les conditions monétaires au Canada

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Carl Gaudreault

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Abstract

In this paper, we use the structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to study the dynamic behaviour of different regional economic variables to a change in monetary conditions in Canada. The variables are: the coincident economic indexes from the Department of Finance Canada, real GDP estimated by the Conference Board of Canada, real retail sales and employment. Impulse response functions obtained with coincident indexes and real GDP show that Ontario is found to be the most sensitive to monetary policy changes. Quebec reacts the same as the national average, while the effect on Atlantic and West regions is less important than the national average. However, the results obtained with real retail sales and employment do not show evidence of differential regional effects of monetary policy. In brief, on the basis of the different measures of economic activity used, we cannot assert with certainty whether the economic effects of a change in monetary conditions are similar or different from one region to another.

Dans ce papier, nous utilisons la méthodologie des vecteurs autorégressifs (VAR) structurels pour étudier le comportement dynamique de différentes variables mesurant l’activité économique régionale au Canada suite à un changement dans les conditions monétaires. Les différentes variables sont : l’indice composite coïncident du Ministère des Finances du Canada, le PIB réel estimé par le Conference Board du Canada, les ventes au détail réelles et l’emploi. Les réponses dynamiques obtenues avec l’indice composite coïncident et le PIB réel indiquent qu’un changement dans les conditions monétaires affecte plus l’Ontario que les autres régions. Le Québec réagit à l’image de la moyenne nationale tandis que l’effet sur les régions de l’Atlantique et de l’Ouest est moins important que la moyenne canadienne. D’autre part, lorsque nous utilisons les ventes au détail réelles et l’emploi comme mesure d’activité économique, les résultats obtenus ne révèlent pas la présence de différences quant à l’impact régional d’un changement dans les conditions monétaires. Bref, sur la base des différentes mesures d’activité économique utilisées, nos résultats ne permettent pas d’affirmer avec certitude si l’impact économique d’un changement dans les conditions monétaires est identique ou différent d’une région à l’autre.

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Paper provided by Department of Finance Canada in its series Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada with number 2002-03.

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Handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:2002-03

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