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Does the Length of the Current Expansion Increase the Probability of Recession?

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Author Info
Backa, L
Abstract

This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle durations has changed over time, and whether the lenght of one phase helps to predict the length of the next.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Finance Canada in its series Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada with number 1996-06.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:1996-06

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Related research
Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES ; CANADA;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Statistics
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.


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