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The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy and Czech Economy’s Financial Stability through Logit Analysis

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Abstract

This article presents a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (named as JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006, but slightly deteriorated in 2007 what could be explained through global market turbulences.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Petr Teply, 2008. "The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy and Czech Economy’s Financial Stability through Logit Analysis," Working Papers IES 2008/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2008_19
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    Keywords

    bankruptcy prediction; financial stability; logit analysis; corporate sector risk; JT index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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