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Capital Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity, and Employment Growth Medium-Term Relations in a Cross-Section Analysis

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  • Robert Stehrer

Abstract

There is a widespread concern that new technologies and digitalization have strong negative impacts on labour demand. This paper analyses the impact of ICT capital accumulation and TFP growth on employment growth (persons and hours worked) and the labour income share in the pre- and post-crisis years. The cross-section results (over countries and industries) suggest that on average TFP growth has no significant influence on employment growth, and perhaps even a slightly positive one, which may point to increasing competitiveness. There is no evidence of significant impacts of the accumulation of ICT capital on employment growth, whereas a positive relationship is found between non-ICT capital accumulation and employment growth. Concerning labour income shares, results at the industry level point to a negative impact of TFP growth, but no effects of ICT capital accumulation. Domestic and foreign inter-industry linkages have – if at all – only modest impacts. These results are generally in line with some recent literature pointing towards only limited effects of new technologies on labour demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Stehrer, 2022. "Capital Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity, and Employment Growth Medium-Term Relations in a Cross-Section Analysis," European Economy - Discussion Papers 161, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:161
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    File URL: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/fellowship-initiative-2020-2021-capital-accumulation-total-factor-productivity-and-employment-growth_en
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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