Simulation Analyses of Production Adjustment Policies for Rice Farming: Policy effects of crop diversion programs and solar sharing (Japanese)

Using micro-data of the Census of Agriculture and Forestry, this paper analyzes farmers' choices related to production adjustment policies for rice farming. Based on estimates of the choice model, we evaluate future agricultural policies such as crop diversion programs and solar sharing through simulations. The Japanese Cabinet approved the Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas in March 2015. The plan sets a high goal of increasing rice production for non-staple food. If support for rice production of non-staple food substantially increases as planned, the burden on taxpayers or consumers will increase drastically. Comparing this to the case of curbed support for non-staple food at the level in 2013, the increased burden on consumers or taxpayers will be ¥358 billion in 2019 based on simulation conducted. The high goal of rice production for non-staple food should be reconsidered.