Fiscal activism and the cost of debt financing
AbstractIn this paper, we estimate the impact of changes in fiscal policy regime on the yield curve. In particular, we differentiate between yield curve responses under active and passive fiscal policy regimes (according to the terminology of Leeper 1991). Analyzing US data in the period 1965-2010, we find a statistically significant impact of fiscal policy only for the active policy regime. A one-percentage-point shock in the primary deficit leads typically to a contemporaneous increase in long-term yields of about 10 basis points, and even stronger cumulative effects. No significant impact of deficits on yields is found in the passive fiscal policy regime.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën in its series Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers with number ces10.13.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Fiscal activism; Markov switching and yield curve;
Other versions of this item:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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- António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013.
"Fiscal regimes in the EU,"
Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers
ces13.06, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
- António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/10, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Paper Series 1529, European Central Bank.
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