Fiscal activism and the cost of debt financing
AbstractIn this paper, we estimate the impact of changes in fiscal policy regime on the yield curve. In particular, we differentiate between yield curve responses under active and passive fiscal policy regimes (according to the terminology of Leeper 1991). Analyzing US data in the period 1965-2010, we find a statistically significant impact of fiscal policy only for the active policy regime. A one-percentage-point shock in the primary deficit leads typically to a contemporaneous increase in long-term yields of about 10 basis points, and even stronger cumulative effects. No significant impact of deficits on yields is found in the passive fiscal policy regime.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën in its series Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers with number ces10.13.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Fiscal activism; Markov switching and yield curve;
Other versions of this item:
- Dewachter, Hans & Toffano, Priscilla, 2012. "Fiscal activism and the cost of debt financing," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/353758, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Dewachter, Hans & Toffano, Carla Priscilla, 2010. "Fiscal activism and the cost of debt financing," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/267253, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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- Thomas Laubach, 2009.
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- Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013.
"Fiscal regimes in the EU,"
Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
urn:hdl:123456789/397915, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers 2013/10, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
- António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces13.06, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
- Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Paper Series 1529, European Central Bank.
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