IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esj/esridp/091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Applications of the Carlson-Parkin Method to Japanese Price Expectations (in Japanese)

Author

Listed:
  • HORI Masahiro
  • TERAI Akira

Abstract

This paper introduces the Carlson-Parkin [1975] method (henceforth, CP) and its variants, which derive an inflation expectation series using actual inflation and published aggregates from a survey on individual economic agents, to beginners. We use the survey results from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (General Explanation of the Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) and the Cabinet Office's Consumer Confidence Survey to derive the expectations of firms and consumers, respectively. The findings from our CP applications to those Japanese data indicate that, though the CP method is a positive attempt to derive an unobservable expectation series based on limited available information, there is plenty of room for improvements to make the derived series more realistic. Considering the important role of inflation/deflation expectations in economic fluctuations, it is an urgent task to have more reliable estimates of expected inflation. We must continue the search for a good proxy of inflation expectations beyond the CP method.

Suggested Citation

  • HORI Masahiro & TERAI Akira, 2004. "Applications of the Carlson-Parkin Method to Japanese Price Expectations (in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 091, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis091/e_dis091a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "How Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Influence the Economy in Japan?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(3), pages 308-330, March.
    2. Ono, Masanori, 2017. "Inflation, expectation, and the real economy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 13-26.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HORI nobuko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.