The adverse distributional effects of a flat tax are well known and have been documented by empirical research in several countries, including Belgium. Advocates of the flat tax argue, correctly, that many of these studies do not take into account agentsà behavioural reactions and possible feed back effects. One of the important effects in this context is the potential increase in labour supply and the resulting increase in the taxable base and decrease in unemployment allowances. In this study we calculate the cost recovery based on a micro-simulation model that includes a labour supply model. We find that there is indeed a clearly positive effect on labour supply and hence also on the tax base. By introducing a revenue-neutral flat tax, labour supply increases by approximately 47,000 full-time equivalents. However, the effect is limited because, compared to a static scenario, the cost recovery only allows the revenue-neutral flat tax to decrease from 38.5% to 37%. Furthermore, there is little or no impact of these employment effects on the strongly regressive nature of a flat tax reform.
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Paper provided by EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series EUROMOD Working Papers with number
EM8/08.
Length: Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em8/08
Note: microsimulation, income distribution, labour supply, flat tax Contact details of provider: Postal: RAB Butler Building, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, ESSEX C04 3SQ Phone: +44 (0)1206 872957 Fax: +44 (0)1206 873151 Email: Web page: http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/euromod/ More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
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