Impact of The Stringency and Volatility of Covid Containmen Measures on Firms’ Performances In The Mena Region

In this paper we study the impact of the variation of the stringency of COVID containment measures and their volatility on rms’ performances. The analysis is based on regressions relying on three waves of rms’ surveys, conducted in four countries of the MENA region in 2021. Our main results are that restrictions tightening but also a higher volatility of the stringency index are negatively associated with the variation in rms’ sales. Access to nance does not seem to lessen the negative eect of the stringency of restrictions and volatility on sales. However, while rms’ adaptation through changes in the business model or digitalization dampens the eects of higher stringency, only a change in the business model can dampen the eects of higher volatility. We also nd evidence of a stronger negative eect of restrictions tightening for foreign-owned and exporting rms. The webinars, reports and papers are supported by the project “Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa (ADWA’)”, implemented by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). The project aims to promote job-rich growth, International Labour Standards (ILS) and their application at the enterprise level. It works at the policymaking level in order to support evidence-based decisions on key dimensions of the Decent Work Agenda. This project was made possible by the generous contributions of the International Labor Organization (ILO), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) of the Government of the United Kingdom, the World Bank and the Arab Fund for Social and Economic Development (AFESD).