Big Cities and Migration: Evidence from Egypt

The rapid pace of urbanization in developing countries, and especially the growth of very large cities, is a source of considerable concern for policy makers and is increasingly becoming a topic for economic analysis. Most studies of migration are concerned with rural-urban flows. However, in this paper we are concerned with large cities - a particular type of urban areas. The paper examines the role of large cities in economic development by focusing on the pattern of migration to and from the three largest cities in Egypt, and how migration alters the labor force composition. We explore separately flows between large cities and: a) less dense urban areas, and b) rural areas. The main findings of the paper are as follows. Being educated increases the likelihood of migration from small towns to big cities as much as the likelihood of leaving the big cities to go to smaller towns. In other words, education has symmetric effect on the probability of migration between big cities and other urban areas. However, being educated increases the likelihood of migrating from rural areas to large cities, but not from large cities to rural areas. Second, being young increases the tendency of migration to big cities from all other areas, but not from big cities to other areas. Being older than 35 increases the likelihood of migration out of big cities more than that into big cities. Thus, migration not only alters the skill composition of the labour force, but also the age structure of the labour force in large cities.