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Multiple Trade Shocks and Partial Liberalization: Dutch Disease and the Egyptian Economy

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  • Nemat Shafik

Abstract

The multiple external shocks experienced by the Egyptian economy are analyzed using a series of conterfactuals for income, consumption, savings, investment, wages and prices. The public sector's use of the windfall (equivalent to $53 billion in net present value terms) was misguided, with little public savings and a variety of policies that forced adjustment into parallel markets. Meanwhile, the private sector consumed and invested as well as exploited opportunities for rent-seeking that were created by the government's control regime. However, the private sector also accumulated assets abroad which served to shift the boom intertemporally and which could provide a source of investment financing in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Nemat Shafik, 1995. "Multiple Trade Shocks and Partial Liberalization: Dutch Disease and the Egyptian Economy," Working Papers 9503, Economic Research Forum, revised 02 Feb 1995.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:9503
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