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Business Cycle Leading Indicators for the Tunisian Economy

Author

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  • Souhir Slimi

    (BESTMOD Laboratory, Institut su périeur de Gestion de Tunis(ISG), University of Tunis)

  • Abdelwahed Trabelsi

Abstract

This paper investigates the Tunisian business cycle with an objective of constructing an index for an early detection of the recession periods using parametric and non-parametric methods. First, several indicators are studied separately. Then, a combined approach based on the MSVAR Model of Krolzig (1997), is considered to study the adequacy of the leading composite indicator as a tool of detecting the occurrence of recessions. We find that financial variables rapidly respond to changes of economic conditions and encompass market expectations regarding future economic activity. Therefore, a revised composite indicator with the inclusion of financial variables constitutes a more reliable tool for economic authorities to be used in detecting recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Souhir Slimi & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2011. "Business Cycle Leading Indicators for the Tunisian Economy," Working Papers 617, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:617
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