The Arab Uprisings and The Path to National Peace and Sustainable Development

There is now consensus that the 2010-2011 uprisings in Arab countries reflect the breakdown of the social contract that had prevailed for over half a century. Governments could no longer sustain an economic system that traded political submissiveness for continuous employment in the public sector and food and energy subsidies. The initial hopes for political and economic reforms quickly faded, and the aftermath of the uprisings led to open conflict and, eventually, civil war. We first identify the key factors that influence the outbreak of a conflict (Syria and Libya) or the renewal of political violence (Yemen and Iraq). Our analysis extends the authoritarian-bargain theory of civil conflicts to include uncertainty about the value of the political bargain offered by an authoritarian government to citizens who have limited information about the available government resources and their distribution among different groups, the probability of success of a revolt, and the eventual political and economic costs of a failed uprising. We test our theory using data for around 125 economies in the period 1980-2020 and undertake several counterfactual exercises that allow us to derive policy implications vis-à-vis the desirable polices authorities should implement to increase the probability of maintaining peace after a conflict