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Drought and Growth in Arab League Members, Iran and Turkey

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  • Thibault Lemaire

    (1Banque de France & Université Paris 1 Panthéon - Sorbonne)

Abstract

Water scarcity and droughts have long characterized the Middle East and North Africa, and climate change represents an additional challenge to this region’s development prospects. Using macroeconomic and climate panel data for Arab League members, Iran and Turkey during the period 1960-–2018, this paper assesses the effects of sustained drought deviations from their historical norms on output growth in the region and shows that droughts decrease output growth in oil importing countries, with no or statistically weakly significant positive effects in oil exporting countries. These effects do not strengthen as the horizon increases and vanish after one year but do not revert in subsequent periods, leading to lasting losses in output level in oil importing countries. The agricultural sector and civil violence appear to be two of the transmission channels. The results advocate for carefully planned economic diversification in the region and shed light to associated risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibault Lemaire, 2022. "Drought and Growth in Arab League Members, Iran and Turkey," Working Papers 1578, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1578
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