The Impact of Twin Shocks on Learning Outcomes and Education Financing in Sudan

The global learning crisis has, rightfully, taken center stage over the past few years, with an increasing focus on supporting policies aimed at improving learning outcomes. However, the COVID-191 pandemic has led to extended school closures worldwide, forcing over 1.8 billion children out of school, and in many cases, with limited access to effective remote learning. School closures in Sudan have led to concerns about the potential long-term learning losses this may entail for several generations of children. For Sudan, the challenge is formidable. The country has undergone a popular revolution to overthrow a 30-year old dictatorship amid worsening macroeconomic conditions. Taking over in September 2019, the Transitional Government introduced an ambitious education reform agenda, with policies that, if fully implemented as intended, may have a significant impact on improving learning outcomes for all. This paper simulates the potential impact of both COVID-19 related school closures as well as the intended policy reforms on learning outcomes and equity. We simulate the effects of these shocks under different assumptions, including the likely duration of school closures, and effectiveness of remote learning solutions adopted by the Government, as well as education financing levels and the capacity of the Government to fully implement the policy reforms. Given equity concerns around the potential COVID-19 impact, we also consider the effects on children from households within different wealth quintiles. The findings show that school closures may have devastating impacts on learning outcomes, especially for children from poorer families. However, the simulations also indicate that the policy focus of the education reform agenda, as well as the stated commitment to increase education financing, have the potential to mitigate short-term learning losses due to COVID-19 and significantly improve learning over time. The findings suggest that increasing education budgets and implementing key reforms will be critical to rebound from the effects of COVID-19 in the short- to medium-term.