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Civil War Onset, Natural Resource Rents and Social Cohesion

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim El-Badawi

    (Economic research forum)

  • Hosam Ibrahim

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Chahir Zaki

    (Cairo University and ERF)

Abstract

This paper examines the nexus between civil war onset, natural resource rents, and social cohesion. Indeed, the main hypothesis is centered on the role of the hydrocarbon resource in promoting conflicts, especially in societies characterized by discrimination. Hence, using a comprehensive dataset, this paper’s contribution is twofold. First, we test the non-linear effect of institutions and rents on the likelihood of civil war onset. Second, we introduce several measures of social cohesion and institutions. Our main findings show that both political institutions and rents have a non-linear effect on the outbreak of civil wars. Moreover, social cohesion variables measured by the share of discriminated population increases the probability of a civil war onset. These results remain robust in different econometric specifications, various estimation techniques and diverse measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim El-Badawi & Hosam Ibrahim & Chahir Zaki, 2020. "Civil War Onset, Natural Resource Rents and Social Cohesion," Working Papers 1401, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1401
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemaire Thibault, 2023. "Civil Conflicts and Exchange Rate Misalignment: Evidence from MENA and Arab League Members," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 101-130, August.

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