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The Consequences of Increased Population Growth for Climate Change

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  • David Rosnick

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of population growth on global climate change. The author employs the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to estimate the effects of population growth on the change global average temperature by 2100. Observing that a larger population supports a larger economy, which translates in close proportion into additional releases of carbon dioxide (CO2), the paper notes that global temperature should in any year be nearly linear in relation to the rate of growth when the rate of population growth is constant. The paper finds that that an additional 1 percentage point of population growth through the end of the century would coincide with about an additional 2 degrees Fahrenheit in average global temperatures. Over time, the temperature change is greater and becomes increasingly sensitive to population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rosnick, 2014. "The Consequences of Increased Population Growth for Climate Change," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2014-18, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2014-18
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cepr.net/documents/Climate-population-2014-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    environment; climate change; population; population growth; Global Change Assessment Mode;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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