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Improper priors with well defined Bayes Factors

Author

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  • Strachan, R.W.
  • van Dijk, H.K.

Abstract

A sensible Bayesian model selection or comparison strategy implies selecting the model with the highest posterior probability. While some improper priors have attractive properties such as, e.g., low frequentist risk, it is generally claimed that Bartlett's paradox implies that using improper priors for the parameters in alternative models results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, thus preventing model comparison in this case. In this paper we demonstrate this latter result is not generally true and expand the class of priors that may be used for computing posterior odds to include some improper priors. Our approach is to give a new representation of the issue of undefined Bayes factors and, from this representation, develop classes of improper priors from which well defined Bayes factors may be derived. This approach involves either augmenting or normalising the prior measure for the parameters. One of these classes of priors includes the well known and commonly employed shrinkage prior. Estimation of Bayes factors is demonstrated for a reduced rank model.

Suggested Citation

  • Strachan, R.W. & van Dijk, H.K., 2004. "Improper priors with well defined Bayes Factors," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1277
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoogerheide, Lennart F. & Kaashoek, Johan F. & van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: An application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 154-180, July.
    2. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian inference in a cointegrating panel data model," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Econometrics, pages 433-469, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Fabian Paul & Thomas R Weikl, 2016. "How to Distinguish Conformational Selection and Induced Fit Based on Chemical Relaxation Rates," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes factor; improper prior; marginal likelihood; measure; shrinkage prior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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