Effects of demographic changes on hospital workforce in European countries

Demographic trends and ageing are one of the main factors influencing future trends in the socio-economic development of all European countries included in significant changes in labour market structure. This paper analyse the influence of demographic changes on health care demand based on utilization method and its direct influence on increasing demand for health workforce. The used methodology is based on previous work (Schultz, 2012) and (Schultz et al., 2013) and is based on different utilization in relation to age group. Main driver of expected changes in demand and utilization is represented by demographic scenario projections (Europop). Presented cross-country comparison shows, that despite the similar demographic trends in all European countries, the situation in health care demand, especially length of stay and number of discharges (incl. trends) is significantly different, but generally leads to increase of expected labour force at healthcare sector. Cluster analysis shows four/five different groups of countries in relation to statust and current development of hospital demand. Further development of expected hospital utilization is based on rather simple time series analysis. On the other side, the main purpose of this paper is present the broader overview of possible labour force shortages in specific sector of employment. Indirectly, via relation of workforce to expenditures, we are able to roughly estimate also effect on real healthcare expenditures. We were unable to incorporate all EU countries in this study due to incomplete data sources. Results of this study are relevant to policy and education planning. See above. Paper presents brief analysis of expected employment in hospital sector in 2025. We will provide estimation of four scenarios, two of them will be related to population forecast and rest of them to change of utilization patterns in hospital care services. Initial analysis shows, that uncertainty about future demand for health care is pretty high and can be affected by many different factors. Current decreasing trends in average length of stay couldn’t be kept in long term, thus some constraints have been adopted. Countries overview has two main conclusions. Firstly, the utilization trends across countries are different and cluster analysis provide information, that we can find 5 groups, which best fits similar trends. Secondly, the age distribution of hospital care remains more stable over time and we couldn’t find significant crossborder influence. Therefore, the trends are distributed rather proportionally. In average in most of the countries we can expect a moderate growth in demand for hospital workforce. Additionally, we have been able to provide information about pure influence of ageing on labour demand. In that case, the differences in population development play significantly lower role than utilization patterns. Generally we can say, that in relation to static scenario (without significant changes in utilization) substantial growth of labour demand can be expected almost in all countries. In dynamic scenario with typically decreasing trend in needs for hospital care only one third of observed countries shows expected increase of demand for hospital care (incl. Germany). We should keep in mind, that only additional demand is analyzed. (Schultz, 2013(a)) shows, that average age of medical and nursing personell is in average over 50, and we can expect also significant role (in some countries even the most significant) of replacement demand in total demand for health care workforce.