(This paper is in Turkish) In this paper we have empirically investigated the validity of the contractionary devaluation hypothesis in Turkey by using the Structural VAR methodology developed by Bernanke (1986). The model used in this study shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, real depreciations have contractionary effects on output. Persistent devaluations have led to high inflation and economic contraction in Turkey. For that reason we have reached the conclusion that foreign trade policy based on the persistent devaluation of real exchange rate will not be efficient to increase export potential of Turkey. Evidences obtained from variance decompositions and impulse response functions imply that there is a very strong pass-through from real exchange rate to inflation. This finding also point out the substantial risks to keep the exchange rate at a competitive level. As a result permanent real devaluation may not be successful unless it is accompanied by appropriate monetary and fiscal policies.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ege University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
0609.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".