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Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob B. Madsen
  • Peter E. Robertson
  • Longfeng Ye

Abstract

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme mortality risk of bubonic plague, we find that outbreaks only had a modest impact on trade costs and market integration, as measured by local variations in wheat prices. The results provide quantitative evidence on how the lives versus livelihoods tradeoff was managed through history and the extent to which people learned to live with plague. They suggest that economic activity in low income societies is very resilient to epidemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & Peter E. Robertson & Longfeng Ye, 2022. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years," CAMA Working Papers 2022-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-09
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2022-01/9_2022_madsen_robertson_ye00.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Trade Costs; Social Distancing; Black Death; Public Health; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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