The Equity Premium and the Baby Boom
AbstractThis paper explores the quantitative impact of the Baby Boom on stock and bond returns. It constructs a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations, in which agents make a portfolio decision over risky capital and safe bonds in zero net supply. The model has exogenous technology and population shocks that are calibrated to match long run data for the US. With agents allowed to borrow freely by shorting bonds, the model fails to match the historical equity premium by a large margin and generates only small asset market effects over a simulated Baby Boom. When agents are constrained in their ability to borrow, the model comes close to matching the historical equity premium and suggests that there will be a sharp rise in the equity premium when the Baby Boomers retire, driven by a large decline in bond returns as Baby Boomers seek to hold the riskless asset in retirement
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 155.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Equity premium; population aging; portfolio choice;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2004-12-02 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-DGE-2004-12-02 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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