Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer
AbstractGovernments in emerging markets often behave like a "tormented insurer" who tries to smooth government outlays given the randomness of public revenues and in a challenging world in which "liability dollarization" requires them to issue debt denominated in hard currencies, or indexed to tradable goods prices. How can a fiscal authority tell if the stock of public debt is consistent with fiscal solvency in this environment? This paper proposes a quantitative framework that aims to answer this question. The framework emphasizes macroeconomic uncertainty and the transmission mechanism by which this uncertainty affects debt dynamics when asset markets are incomplete. A government making a credible commitment to repay cannot borrow above a "natural" debt limit set by the annuity value of the "catastrophic" level of the primary balance. This limit, and the likelihood that the government may hit it along an equilibrium path, are partly determined by tax and expenditure policies, but they also depend on endogenous and exogenous variables outside the government's control. Liability dollarization implies that endogenous fluctuations of the real exchange rate influence the variability of tax revenues and the government's ability to service debt, and thus affect the natural debt limit and public debt dynamics. The model proposed here quantifies the dynamics of public debt implied by the competitive equilibrium of a two-sector small open economy subject to exogenous shocks to income and the world interest rate, given tax and expenditure policies. The resulting short- and long-run distributions of debt-output ratios deviate sharply from conventional sustainable debt ratios
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 647.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
International Capital Flows;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F0 - International Economics - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Diego Valderrama & Katherine Smith, 2009. "Why Do Emerging Economies Import Direct Investment and Export Savings? A Story of Financial Underdevelopment," 2009 Meeting Papers 1160, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- repec:idb:brikps:22178 is not listed on IDEAS
- Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund.
- Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005.
"Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods,"
IMF Working Papers
05/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank.
- Humberto Mora Alvarez, 2004. "Assesing Fiscal Sustainability With Alternative Methodologies," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.