A Dynamic Oligopoly Structural Model for the Prescription Drug Market After Patent Expiration
AbstractMotivated by the slow diffusion of generic drugs and the increase in prices of brand-name drugs after generic entry, I incorporate consumer learning and consumer heterogeneity into an empirical dynamic oligopoly model. In the model, firms choose prices to maximize their expected total discounted profits. Moreover, generic firms make their entry decisions before patent expiration. The entry time of generics depends on the FDA random approval process. I apply this model to the market of clonidine. The demand side parameters are estimated in a previous paper (Ching (2003)). The supply side parameters are estimated and calibrated here. The model replicates the stylized facts fairly well. I confirm that consumer heterogeneity in price sensitivity plays an important role in explaining the brand-name pricing pattern. I also apply the model to examine the impact of a policy experiment, which shortens the expected approval time for generics. Although this experiment brings generics to the market sooner, it also reduces the number of generic entrants as the likelihood of entering a crowded market in the early periods increases. Given the change in the magnitude of the policy parameter, the experiment improves the rate of learning, and lowers the equilibrium generic prices throughout the period. However, it hardly raises the overall welfare
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 735.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
Dynamic Oligopoly; Consumer Learning; Pharmaceutical Industry;
Other versions of this item:
- Andrew T. Ching, 2010. "A Dynamic Oligopoly Structural Model For The Prescription Drug Market After Patent Expiration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1175-1207, November.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
- L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-COM-2004-10-30 (Industrial Competition)
- NEP-HEA-2004-10-30 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IND-2004-11-22 (Industrial Organization)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Andrew Ching & Masakazu Ishihara, 2010. "The effects of detailing on prescribing decisions under quality uncertainty," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 123-165, June.
- Alpert, Abby & Duggan, Mark & Hellerstein, Judith K., 2013.
"Perverse reverse price competition: Average wholesale prices and Medicaid pharmaceutical spending,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 44-62.
- Abby Alpert & Mark Duggan & Judith K. Hellerstein, 2013. "Perverse Reverse Price Competition: Average Wholesale Prices and Medicaid Pharmaceutical Spending," NBER Working Papers 19367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Kranz, 2013.
"Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
786969000000000676, David K. Levine.
- Kranz, Sebastian, 2013. "Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80047, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Sebastian Kranz, 2013. "Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1888, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jean-Pierre Dubé & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ching & Gregory Crawford & Michaela Draganska & Jeremy Fox & Wesley Hartmann & Günter Hitsch & V. Viard & Miguel Villas-Boas & Naufel Vilcassim, 2005. "Recent Advances in Structural Econometric Modeling: Dynamics, Product Positioning and Entry," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 209-224, December.
- Sebastian Kranz, 2012.
"Discounted Stochastic Games with Voluntary Transfers,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
786969000000000423, David K. Levine.
- Sebastian Kranz, 2012. "Discounted Stochastic Games with Voluntary Transfers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1847, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Brekke, Kurt R. & Holmas, Tor Helge & Straume, Odd Rune, 2011.
"Reference pricing, competition, and pharmaceutical expenditures: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 624-638, August.
- Brekke, Kurt R. & Holmas, Tor Helge & Straume, Odd Rune, 2011. "Reference pricing, competition, and pharmaceutical expenditures: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 624-638.
- Kurt R. Brekke & Tor Helge Holmås & Odd Rune Straume, 2010. "Reference Pricing, Competition, and Pharmaceutical Expenditures: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 3258, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ginger Zhe Jin & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Platform Pricing at Sports Card Conventions," NBER Working Papers 17959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duflos, Gautier & Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2012. "Does competition stimulate drug utilization? The impact of changes in market structure on US drug prices, marketing and utilization," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 95-109.
- Andrew Ching & Susumu Imai & Masakazu Ishihara & Neelam Jain, 2009.
"A Practitioner's Guide to Bayesian Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models,"
1201, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Ching & Susumu Imai & Masakazu Ishihara & Neelam Jain, 2012. "A practitioner’s guide to Bayesian estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 151-196, June.
- Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Paul B. Ellickson & Peter Landry & David B. Ridley, 2013.
NBER Working Papers
19522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger Feldman & Félix Lobo, 2013. "Competition in prescription drug markets: the roles of trademarks, advertising, and generic names," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 667-675, August.
- Anderson, Simon P. & Ciliberto, Federico & Liaukonyte, Jura, 2013. "Information content of advertising: Empirical evidence from the OTC analgesic industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 355-367.
- Ching, Andrew & Ishihara, Masakazu, 2007. "The Effects of Detailing on Prescribing Decisions under Two-Sided Learning," MPRA Paper 4935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marc Rysman & Ginger Zhe Jin, 2012. "Platform Pricing at Sports Card Conventions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.