Expected Returns and Volatility of Fama-French Factors
AbstractIn this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time- series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly strong from one month to one year, and it dominates that afforded by the variance risk premium and other popular predictor variables such as P/D ratio, the P/E ratio, the default spread, and the consumption-wealth ratio. In a simple representative agent economy with recursive preferences, I model the portfolio weight in each asset as a function of a stock's characteristics and show that the market return can be predicted by these variances.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2009-17.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-14 (All new papers)
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