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Hyperbolic Discounting And Resource Collapse

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  • Cameron Hepburn

Abstract

This paper shows that the use of hyperbolic discounting in environmental regulation can have unfortunate consequences. In a three-period model we demonstrate that a planner who `naively` employs hyperbolic discounting and fails to anticipate problems of dynamic inconsistency, can oversee a collapse of a renewable resource. If the regeneration rate of the resource is within a given range, and stock levels are close to the `minimum viable population`, then an unforeseen collapse will result. This basic result is shown to hold in an infinite-horizon, continuous-time model with hyperbolic discounting of the sort examined in Barro (1999) and Li and Lofgren (2001). Here, the naive planner does not anticipate extinction of its resource stock because it always plans to lower consumption (but it never does). Two conclusions follow from these results. First, the model provides an explanation for resource collapses such as that of the Peruvian anchovy and Atlantic cod. Second, governments should think carefully before they employ hyperbolic discounting in policymaking.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 with number 103.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:103

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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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Cited by:
  1. Winkler, Ralph, 2009. "Now or Never: Environmental Protection under Hyperbolic Discounting," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(12), pages 1-22.
  2. Groom, Ben & Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pearce, David, 2007. "Implications of declining discount rates: Climate Change Policy in the UK," MPRA Paper 38428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Winkler, Ralph, 2006. "Does 'better' discounting lead to 'worse' outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 573-582, June.
  4. Ondřej Vojáček, 2011. "Preference Dilemma in Economics," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 345-358.
  5. Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri & David Pearce, 2005. "Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 445-493, December.

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