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The Characteristics of Business Cycles in Selected European Emerging Market Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Carmignani

    (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

Abstract

This paper analyses the business cycles of selected European emerging market economies (EME) in terms of their statistical properties and degree of synchronization with the euro area, and discusses the associated policy implications. The evidence suggests that in these economies cyclical fluctuations are wider and more frequent than in the euro area, that there is moderate consumption smoothing, and that technological shocks and labour hoarding are driving labour-market dynamics. The macroeconomic policy stance is not significantly countercyclical. Furthermore, the degree of synchronization of domestic business cycles with the business cycle of the euro area is weak in all the EME except Hungary and Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Carmignani, 2005. "The Characteristics of Business Cycles in Selected European Emerging Market Economies," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2005_7, UNECE.
    • Handle: RePEc:ece:dispap:2005_7
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    File URL: http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/oes/disc_papers/ECE_DP_2005-7.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
    Download Restriction: no
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sandrine Levasseur, 2008. "Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973040, HAL.
    2. Kalina Durova, 2019. "Are the New Member States Ready to Join the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 72-95.
    3. Ivan Todorov, 2012. "European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 131-152.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6141 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6141 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
    7. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6141 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; European macroeconomics; emerging market economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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