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Cross-country cross-technology digitalisation: a Bayesian hierarchical model perspective

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  • Hoffreumon, Charles
  • Labhard, Vincent

Abstract

In this article, we present a new perspective on forecasting technology adoption, focused on the extensive margin of adoption of multiple digital technologies in multiple countries. We do this by applying a Bayesian hierarchical structure to the seminal model of technology diffusion. After motivating the new perspective and the choices of priors, we apply the resulting framework to a cross-continental data set for EU and OECD countries and different digital technologies adopted by either households/individuals or by businesses. The results illustrate that the Bayesian hierarchical structure may be used to assess and predict both the adoption process and the uncertainty surrounding the data, and is robust to the use of alternative priors. They point to heterogeneity across countries and across technologies, mostly in the timing of adoption and, although to a lesser extent, the steady-state adoption rate once technologies are fully diffused. This suggests that characteristics of countries and technologies matter for technology diffusion. JEL Classification: C11, C52, C53, O33, O57

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffreumon, Charles & Labhard, Vincent, 2022. "Cross-country cross-technology digitalisation: a Bayesian hierarchical model perspective," Working Paper Series 2700, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222700
    Note: 360650
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2700~08fcb49cd5.en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Labhard, Vincent & Lehtimäki, Jonne, 2022. "Digitalisation, institutions and governance, and growth: mechanisms and evidence," Working Paper Series 2735, European Central Bank.
    2. Bunel, Simon & Bijnens, Gert & Botelho, Vasco & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lamo, Ana & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & Sellner, Richard & Strobel, Johannes & Anghel, Brindusa, 2024. "Digitalisation and productivity," Occasional Paper Series 339, European Central Bank.
    3. Bijnens, Gert & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Colciago, Andrea & De Mulder, Jan & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Meriküll, Jaanika & Parker, Miles & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & , 2024. "The impact of climate change and policies on productivity," Occasional Paper Series 340, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adoption; diffusion; maximum; speed; timing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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