Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

La insolvencia de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008: Sobre su previsibilidad y sobre algunos "profetas a posteriori"


Author Info

  • Fernandez, Pablo

    (IESE Business School)

  • Aguirreamalloa, Javier

    (IESE Business School)


Este documento analiza: - 106 informes de analistas sobre Lehman publicados entre enero y septiembre de 2008, - publicaciones de la CNMV - la evolución de la cotización de Lehman - la evolución del rating de la deuda de Lehman. - la evolución del CDS (Credit Default Swap) de Lehman - la evolución de la contabilidad auditada de Lehman, para tratar de dar una respuesta a la pregunta: ¿Era previsible, con la información pública de la que se disponía, predecir la quiebra de Lehman Brothers? Si hubiera sido evidente "el claro riesgo de quiebra" (en palabras de algunos "profetas a posteriori" que se muestran en el apartado 4) estos "profetas a posteriori" habrían obtenido enormes ganancias personales apostando a la quiebra de Lehman (por ejemplo, comprando opciones de venta o warrants de venta sobre acciones de Lehman; vendiendo futuros o forwards sobre acciones de la entidad, etc.).

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Silvia Jimenez)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/950.

as in new window
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 03 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0950

Contact details of provider:
Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page:
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: quiebra; insolvencia; analistas;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.



This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Jimenez).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.