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La insolvencia de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008: Sobre su previsibilidad y sobre algunos "profetas a posteriori"

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  • Fernandez, Pablo

    ()
    (IESE Business School)

  • Aguirreamalloa, Javier

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

Este documento analiza: - 106 informes de analistas sobre Lehman publicados entre enero y septiembre de 2008, - publicaciones de la CNMV - la evolución de la cotización de Lehman - la evolución del rating de la deuda de Lehman. - la evolución del CDS (Credit Default Swap) de Lehman - la evolución de la contabilidad auditada de Lehman, para tratar de dar una respuesta a la pregunta: ¿Era previsible, con la información pública de la que se disponía, predecir la quiebra de Lehman Brothers? Si hubiera sido evidente "el claro riesgo de quiebra" (en palabras de algunos "profetas a posteriori" que se muestran en el apartado 4) estos "profetas a posteriori" habrían obtenido enormes ganancias personales apostando a la quiebra de Lehman (por ejemplo, comprando opciones de venta o warrants de venta sobre acciones de Lehman; vendiendo futuros o forwards sobre acciones de la entidad, etc.).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/950.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 03 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0950

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Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
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Keywords: quiebra; insolvencia; analistas;

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