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Cases and Scenarios in Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author

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  • Gilboa, Itzhak
  • Minardi, Stefania
  • Samuelson, Larry

Abstract

We offer a model that combines and generalizes case-based decision theory and expected utility maximization. It is based on the premise that an agent looks ahead and assesses possible future scenarios, but may not know how to evaluate their likelihood and may not be sure that the set of scenarios is exhaustive. Consequently, she also looks back at her memory for past cases, and makes decisions so as to maximize a combined function, taking into account both scenarios and cases. We allow for non-additive set functions, both over future scenarios and over past cases, to capture (i) incompletely specified or unforeseen scenarios, (ii) ambiguity, (iii) the absence of information about counterfactuals, and (iv) some forms of case-to-rule induction ("abduction") and statistical inference. We axiomatize this model. Learning in this model takes several forms, and, in particular, changes the relative weights of the two forms of reasoning.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilboa, Itzhak & Minardi, Stefania & Samuelson, Larry, 2017. "Cases and Scenarios in Decisions Under Uncertainty," HEC Research Papers Series 1200, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1200
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2948253
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    Cited by:

    1. Ani Guerdjikova & Jürgen Eichberger, 2023. "Cases and States ," Working Papers hal-03962412, HAL.
    2. Brian Hill, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Post-Print hal-03503986, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decisions Under Uncertainty; decision theory;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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