Rational Pessimism: Predicting Equity Returns using Tobin's q and Price/Earnings Ratios
AbstractIn the spring of 2000, two books predicted a substantial fall in the S&P500 Index. Robert Shiller's Irrational Exuberance found that, historically, a high price earnings ratio, with real earnings averaged over 10 years, accurately predicts a low real rate of return from investing in the S&P500 Index. Smithers and Wright's Valuing Wall Street found that a high Tobin's q for the non-financial equities in the S&P500 does the same. We discover that q beats all variants of the PE ratio for predicting real rates of return over alternative horizons. We also formalize the feedback mechanisms considered in both books.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-29.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in THE JOURNAL OF INVESTING
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-02-18 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-02-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2003-02-18 (Macroeconomics)
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- Banu Simmons-Süer, 2013. "Forecasting High-Yield Bond Spreads Using the Loan Market as Leading Indicator," KOF Working papers 13-328, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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