Multicointegration, Sustainability of Fiscal Practices and the Role of Fiscal Institutions
AbstractUsing the multicointegration methodology first presented in Granger and Lee (1989, 1990) and further developed by Engsted, Gonzalo and Haldrup (1997) and Haldrup (1998) we develop criteria for testing sustainability of the fiscal budgeting process. We then apply this criteria to the fiscal systems of fifteen industrialized countries. Finland, Norway, the U.K. and Switzerland display government budgeting behavior consistent with sustainable fiscal practices. Evidence indicates that the budgeting practices of Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the U.S. are inconsistent with practices that are sustainable. The findings suggest that over the sample period the governments of these last eleven countries may have been trying to exploit low rates of interest relative to growth or execute a Ponzi scheme. However, should growth decline, sustainability of the fiscal processes may become problematic necessitating structural adjustments. The evidence further suggests that reforming budgetary institutions in such a manner as to make them stronger, more hierarchical and transparent will mitigate the pressures to pursue fiscal profligacy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 01-04.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-02-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2002-02-15 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-PKE-2002-02-15 (Post Keynesian Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics Webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.