Using the multicointegration methodology first presented in Granger and Lee (1989, 1990) and further developed by Engsted, Gonzalo and Haldrup (1997) and Haldrup (1998) we develop criteria for testing sustainability of the fiscal budgeting process. We then apply this criteria to the fiscal systems of fifteen industrialized countries. Finland, Norway, the U.K. and Switzerland display government budgeting behavior consistent with sustainable fiscal practices. Evidence indicates that the budgeting practices of Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the U.S. are inconsistent with practices that are sustainable. The findings suggest that over the sample period the governments of these last eleven countries may have been trying to exploit low rates of interest relative to growth or execute a Ponzi scheme. However, should growth decline, sustainability of the fiscal processes may become problematic necessitating structural adjustments. The evidence further suggests that reforming budgetary institutions in such a manner as to make them stronger, more hierarchical and transparent will mitigate the pressures to pursue fiscal profligacy.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
01-04.
Length: Date of creation: 2001 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:01-04
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097 Phone: (919) 660-1800 Fax: (919) 684-8974 Web page: http://www.econ.duke.edu/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Department of Economics Webmaster).
Related research
Keywords:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: