An SVAR Analysis of Monetary Policy Dynamics and Housing Market Responses in Australia
AbstractThis paper examines the impact of monetary policy and a range of sector-specific and macroeconomic shocks on the Australian housing market using quarterly data for a period of 1974-2008. The paper develops a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model based on contemporaneous restrictions to analyse the dynamics of these shocks. The results indicate that supply of new houses in Australia rises with higher real house prices; and that house prices rise and fall with higher inflation rate and interest rate, respectively. Dynamics of the impulse responses reveal significant effect of monetary policy on new house constructions, real house prices, material costs and inflation. Results also suggest that housing output, real house prices and interest rates respond significantly to shocks to housing supply, housing demand and to a number of other variables. These results are expected to shed some lights on the current policy environment pertaining to the Australian housing sector.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Economics Series with number 2009_22.
Date of creation: 22 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
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Monetary transmission; Housing market; Structural VAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-01-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-01-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-01-30 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-URE-2010-01-30 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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